Are you smarter than an economist?

Have you been thinking that you may be smarter than the economists and “talking heads?” that your guess may be as good as theirs? If so, here is your chance to try your luck. I am sponsoring a contest to see who will be first to predict the turnaround of the U.S. economy.

The prize for “Are you smarter than an economist?” will be $1,000 U.S. to the first person who predicts the turn accurately; $150 U.S. to the next five (Other terms and conditions apply). The winner will be the person who accurately predicts both of the following measures (Please note: Although I debated for some time which measures to use, I finally decided to use criteria often used and generally understood):

1. Quarter that seasonally adjusted annual rate of real U.S. Gross Domestic Product increases by at least 2% from prior quarter (This will be measured as reported at this URL, title “Percent change from preceding period.” We’ll use “chained 2,000 dollars”).
2. Month that seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate is the same or less than the same month in a prior year (This will be measured as reported at this URL; see the chart with monthly unemployment located under the graph).